Subject: Distribution of H5N1 cases in 2006 -07 2006至07年間發現 H5N1 個案地點的分佈 [Print This Page] Author: lpaul Time: 14/02/2007 12:43 Subject: Distribution of H5N1 cases in 2006 -07 2006至07年間發現 H5N1 個案地點的分佈
Of the 13 bird species (excluding poultry) which have tested positive for H5N1 in 2006 and 2007, nine are entirely resident, three are resident but with migrants also occurring and one is an introduced resident, but is also commonly traded. Purely migratory birds are completely lacking.
If we then look at the distribution of the cases there is a clear concentration within urban Kowloon, with 7 of the 15 cases in 2006 occurring there and 6 of the 8 cases so far this year. Another interpretation of this is that in 2006 46% of cases were within 3 km of the Mong Kok bird markets, as have been 75% of the cases so far this year. Given that this is an area of 28 km sq, (ie 2.6% of the land comprising Hong Kong) the fact that 57% of the cases in 2006 and 2007 are from this area is surely more than coincidence, especially when coupled with the lack of migratory birds testing positive.
To continue to implicate wild birds in the spread of H5N1 in Hong Kong seems unrealistic, likewise to not believe that the bird trade has a significant role seems unwise.
Excellent set of stats there which certainly point towards the trade in birds having a significant role the spread of this virus.
I don't know how far the Society has got with the HK Governemt on this issue, but is it worthwhile going further afield with information like Paul has supplied? For example, I read the BBC website news regularly, which always appears to focus on European cases. Perhaps they could also do with a more global perspective and feature HK?
The relatively small size of HK and with the regular (?) of releasing birds for religious ceremonies, combined with the abundance of bird experts in the SAR, it really does make the area a pretty good Case Study I think for establishing the link between the bird trade and H5N1.
I'm sure that people higher up the food-chain than myself have thought of this and put the wheels in motion, however I just wanted to add my thoughts. Author: gtom Time: 15/02/2007 17:34 Subject: BirdLife Update: Avian Influenza
The Eurasian Kestrel found at Pak Tin Estate was the 10th case of a bird found with H5N1 this year.
This location is within 1km of Mong Kong Bird Market. This is the 8th case out of 10, and once again fits the pattern of either being a released cagebird or a predator which would feed on sick or injured birds.
When will the Government start to take this seriously?
Cheers
Mike K Author: lpaul Time: 22/02/2007 14:17
In addition to the eight cases within 1 km of the Mong Kok bird markets this year were four in the same area last year i.e 12 out of the 25 cases in 06 and 07.
This increase in cases in such a small area should be of concern to govt., the Kowloon Peninsula is after all one of the most densely population places in the world.
It is also of note that despite the usual reference by govt in the press release about wild birds, Hong Kong is the only place in the world that has reported cases in wild birds so far this year. That these are all being found in such an urban environment must be ringing alarm bells somewhere in govt? In addition, cases in wild birds elsewhere refer almost exlusively in large waterbirds, which again is quite different to current situation.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to point the blame at wild birds with the majority of cases being so close to the bird markets. Quite simply the bird trade is bringing H5N1 into the urban area - ingoring this is reckless in the extreme. Author: tbob Time: 22/02/2007 20:06
Thanks Paul & Mike for the information.
I know nothing about the bird trade but am wondering how long does it take an importer after buying the bird overseas, for the bird to be on sale in HK.
How long does it take an infected bird to die from H5N1?
Could some quarantine period be imposed on the bird trade.
If a bird dies from H5N1, how long does the carcass remain deadly to other birds/animals that may eat it
Thanks
Bob Author: tmichael Time: 22/02/2007 22:59
I don't think there'd be any straightforward, reliable or very useful answers to your questions, Bob, though I can tell you that from past observation birds may get here within about ten days or so of being trapped in say Northern China. They don't of course come from 'overseas' for the main part, in the strict sense of the expression.
Can't see why we should be talking about quarantine periods for the bird trade - just shut it down once and for all.
As others have said it's completely ridiculous that our government continues to permit import into the heart of one of the most densely populated areas in the world - Mongkok - of consignments of precisely the type of bird imports from precisely the source - viz China - that caused the EU to ban all bird imports completely.
They are a complete joke from the man in the bow-tie down.
This is one job I hope we'll get done, but I'm not overly optimistic.
Mike Turnbull Author: lpaul Time: 23/02/2007 10:01
The SCMP today states that 2 more birds are suspected to have H5 avian influenza. Both are munias, one a Scaly-breasted in Happy Valley, the other a Chestnut Munia at St Teresa's Hospital on Prince Edward Road West, Kowloon City.
So there we have it - a bird that does not occur in the wild in Hong Kong (last records from the former feral population are from 1995) - and 1 km from the Mong Kok bird market.
This has yet to be proven to be H5N1, so I shall wait for the final test results with interest. Author: lpaul Time: 27/02/2007 08:56
Haven't been posting on this forum for a very long time. I haven't really figured out how to use the new BBS.
Anyways, the statistics look promising to indicate an outbreak source in the Mong Kok bird market. Can someone please put a summary of the EXACT LOCATION of all the H5N1 positive birds in HK in 2006-2007? Then we can make a map to visualize the distribution of all the cases and make some more vigorous statistical analysis to show that the virus came from the bird market. Author: cgeoff Time: 11/03/2007 17:34
You can start by visiting the AFCD website, which lists all cases.
I'm not sure that you could prove statistically that these birds come from the bird market, as such.
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