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White Wagtail baicalensis?

Out of interest, how do you identify this as a baicalensis White Wagtail? My understanding was that baicalensis is a pale-backed race (i.e. similar to ocularis), whereas these birds seem to me to be fairly dark-backed (more similar to the colour of a female leucopsis).

Of course, the head pattern does not fit with leucopsis, showing much too black, but surely the darker ear-coverts also do not fit very well for baicalensis? This photo suggests that baicalensis not only has a somewhat different head pattern, but also suggests that it shows more grey on the flanks than the Po Toi birds seem to show:
http://nomadicjourneys.com/press ... e=inline&id=369

I would be interested to hear some feedback. I am not trying to say these birds are definitely not baicalensis - certainly it is a feasible migrant to Hong Kong - but I am slightly puzzled that they do not fit with my expectations for that subspecies. Geoff's suggestion that they seem to be associating with leucopsis also seems intriguing (OK, so that may just be due to them associating with the most similar bird they can find, but it's not something I notice with e.g. ocularis and leucopsis).

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