Hi Alan and Mike,
As egrets still breed in Tolo Harbour, so I doubt whether marine pollution is the explanation of the change of breeding pattern of terns and egrets.
In fact, the water quality of Tolo Harbour is improving (because they pump the semi-treated sewage to Victoria Harbour). You could see the 1986-2005 report at
http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/misc/marine_quality/1986-2005/index.html
I guess it may relate to weather, human disturbance and fish availability. As terns are migratory, so some disasters happened along the migratory route may affect the breeding of terns in HK.
Captain