Hi Geoff,
Less 1 h, Jonathan
Yes i also was thinking about this black splodges and that should indicate that this bird have more chance to belong to "leucopsis".
But it's interesting to see the variation of the breast patch on this different birds.
I spend time again this morning, on wagtail watching,on near fifty birds spotted i found only one with such black patch coming into the troat but also not so clear cut. I join the photo below, also showing the rump.
The feature of the rump is interesting.
I've find a link showing well the rump of a "baicailensis", looks greyish with some feather with black edge.
http://www.biolib.cz/en/taxon/id686829/
I've check all the pictures of my birds, and they all show well black rump, include this morning bird. So i like the supposition of 1stW "leucopsis", assuming there adulte plumage, that could explain why all of them have so unclear breast patch border, looks like this patch is reducing into a normal adulte "leucopsis" patch.My third bird in my past post, is maybe a first winter with more advanced moulting, more black spodges on back and more reduce breast patch with some few blackish rest in the throat and ear-covert.
Have you the date of the bird of 2006-07.
On your bird the proportion of black on the head and breast patch is more important than on all of my birds, but is also not so well cut, so i don't know what think about. As you said maybe the rump feature is the key to identify this bird. Hope you can get some pics of it.
I will post the pics late over my authorized poor limit file's size per day!