same as John, I've always eliminate baicalensis on the basis of the black spot on mantle and extensive black on lower scapulars and lesser coverts especially obvious on the pics showing the left side of the bird.
To me baicalensis should show an immaculate grey mantle including lower rump.
I think these birds are 1st winter female leucopsis.
I found breast batch very variable. I recently spent lot of time checking birds at a roost with about 500 wagtail in SW Guangdong and was abble to find a single baicalensis showing the feature described above, but many birds showing same feature as the bird shown in this topic.
