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        Special Topics ¯S§O¥DÃD >> Wild Birds & Avian Flu ³¥³¾»P¸V¬y·P >>  »´äÆ[³¾·|´N³Ìªñ¸V¬y·P½¯©µªº·N¨£¤Î«ØÄ³(¤G) HKBWS's View 2
        
(Message started by: HKBWS Project on Nov 5^th, 2005, 4:19pm)

Title: »´äÆ[³¾·|´N³Ìªñ¸V¬y·P½¯©µªº·N¨£¤Î«ØÄ³(¤G) HKBWS's View 2
Post by HKBWS Project on Nov 5^th, 2005, 4:19pm

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HKBWS information and comments on Avian Flu (2)25 October 2005

Bird species that are considered high risk on transmitting H5N1
1. Grey Heron: H5N1 has been more frequently associated with Heron species than other species. There were over 1000 Grey Herons in Hong Kong in Winter. Most of them are in the Mai Po ¡V Deep Bay area. They are ¡§fairly common winter visitor¡¨ in Thailand.

The effect of bird migration on the spread of Avian Flu

1. The implication from the migratory route analysis is that Avian Flu in SE Asia can be transmitted to all over the world. Migratory birds in Indonesia will move north to Siberia and pass the virus to birds that migrate through Europe. This explains the outbreak in Europe. Based on this concept, we should expect virus outbreak in America too, may be in 1-3 year¡¦s time.
2. There is nothing new in the above analysis. The result is already known to all Avian Flu specialists.
3. From time to time, there are calls to stop Avian Flu by controlling (reducing) the migratory birds. We must say this is not realistic at all. First of all, we do not know the exact consequence of upsetting the balance of nature by eliminating the birds. By eliminating the birds indiscriminately, it is very likely a big problem will result from our action. Secondly, it is not cost effective or even possible to eliminate all birds. If one keeps on chasing the birds, we have to face the danger that birds that are less healthy may have greater change of being infected by the virus.

Some figures on probabilities of contracting Avian Flu

1. Based on Avian Flu tests on wild birds in Hong Kong, out of about 7000 samples, the number birds having the flu virus is about 3. In all cases, the virus was found in dead birds (1 dead Peregrine Falcon, 1 dead Grey Heron, and may be a third bird?)
2. Even when there are wild birds carrying the virus, the chance of human getting the virus directly from wild bird is virtually unknown. Even though this is theoretical possible, the chance is extremely low. There are many examples of human in direct contact with wild birds or captive birds carrying the virus but none seems to have contracted the disease.
3. Out of may be about 100 cases of Avian Flu, there are minor evidences that may be 1-2 cases due to direct contact with wild birds. Most of the cases are due to direct contact with poultry birds from farms. Even in situations that there are high concentration of H5N1 such as in poultry farm outbreaks, not everybody in contact with the virus will be infected. Medical experts may be able to supply more concrete figures on this.
4. The spread of virus from bird to poultry birds seems to be high.