Mike,
I think the wagtail is a female leucopsis with an unusually large bib. The mantle colour is fairly dark grey and the wing pattern looks typical for female leucopsis (extensive white on greaters and pure white median coverts). Also the black of the rump seems to extend well beyond the upper tail coverts, which would indicate one of the black-backed subspecies.
Although the bib is more extensive than a typical leucopsis, I think it is also more extensive than would be seen on a baicalensis at this time of year (which I think should show a similar bib to leucopsis, with perhaps an additional patch at the end of the malar)